AI and the Doorman Fallacy

When the door opens itself, what still needs doing?

Replace a doorman with an automatic door and the door still opens. But who welcomes the regulars, notices trouble, or finds a taxi in the rain? Rory Sutherland calls this the doorman fallacy: reducing a job to its most obvious task, then mistaking automation of that task for replacement of the whole role.

AI makes this question personal. A developer writes code, but also figures out what should be built. A mathematician proves theorems, but also asks fruitful questions and builds understanding. A teacher explains things, but also notices who has quietly stopped trying.

What else did the doorman do?

Choose a profession. Automate the visible task. Look at what still needs doing.

The doorman analogyA person stands beside a door. Automating the visible task opens the door, while three wider responsibilities remain below. DOORMAN VISIBLE TASKOpen the door ALSO PART OF THE JOB ↓

This is no guarantee that our jobs are safe. AI may take on those other responsibilities too. But before calling a role redundant, we should understand everything it contributes.

When the door opens itself, what still needs doing?